A.7 Identify Trends

By RBThub February 23, 2026

If you look at a stock market chart, you want to see the line going UP (making money). If it's going DOWN, you're losing money.

In ABA, we do the exact same thing. We don't just collect data to put it in a drawer. We look at the graph to answer one question: "Is it working?" This process is called Visual Analysis.

Executive Summary

This video teaches you the "Eyeball Test." You don't need complex statistics to read an ABA graph. You just need to look for three things: Trend (Direction), Variability (Bounce), and Level (Height). Recognizing these patterns allows you to determine if a behavior is improving, worsening, or staying the same.

⏱️ Video Timeline

00:00
Graph Components
Review of the X-axis (Time), Y-axis (Behavior), Data Path, and Phase Change Lines.
03:10
Visual Analysis
Trend: Is it going Up, Down, or Flat?
Variability: Is it stable (predictable) or all over the place (variable)?
08:04
Skill Acquisition
Calculating percentage correct. Mastery is usually 80-90%.

🔑 Key Insights

Trend: The overall direction of the data path. (Ascending = Increasing).
Variability: How much the data "bounces." High variability means the behavior is unpredictable.
Level: Where the data sits on the Y-axis (High, Medium, or Low).
Baseline vs. Intervention: We compare the two phases to see if our treatment caused a change.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What if the data goes up AND down?
A: We call this Variable or "No Trend." It means the behavior is inconsistent.
Q: Is an Ascending Trend good or bad?
A: It depends! If "Reading Skills" are ascending, that's GOOD. If "Aggression" is ascending, that's BAD.

1. Identifying Trends (Direction)

Draw a straight line through the middle of your data points. Where is that line pointing?
Ascending (Increasing)
Descending (Decreasing)
Stable (Zero Trend)

2. Variability (Consistency)

Variability is the "Bounce."
High Variability: The data jumps up and down wildly. This means we don't have control yet.
Low Variability (Stable): The data is flat and predictable.
High Variability

📝 Knowledge Check

Look at the charts above and answer these.

Q1: You are tracking "Tantrums." The data points are: 10, 8, 6, 4, 2. What is the trend?

Answer: Descending.
The numbers are going down. This is a decreasing trend (Improvement!).

Q2: The data points are jumping wildly: 2, 20, 5, 18, 3. How would you describe the variability?

Answer: High Variability.
The data is not stable; it is bouncing around unpredictable.
▶

Graph Analysis Quiz

Mock Exam

Practice identifying trends, levels, and variability.

Start Practice Test
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